The majority of the conditions currently included in the hub are conditions that typically only affect adults eg AMD. However, there are many eye conditions that affect children as well as adults, and a number of these have been included in this version of the hub eg myopia, low vision, diabetic retinopathy and many ocular motility conditions. It also includes some paediatric eye conditions. We will be adding more eye conditions to the data hub in future updates.
The conditions mentioned in the presentation and press release are the most common eye conditions that cause sight loss and therefore would be of most interest to commissioners and those planning secondary eye care services. However, there are other common eye conditions included in the hub, such as myopia – which would be managed in primary care. The hub currently includes over 40 eye conditions, with more due to be added in the next update.
There are over 40 eye diseases and eye conditions currently included in this version of the hub. More conditions will be added in an updated version later in 2025, including conditions managed by oculoplastics.
Eye disease prevalence and incidence estimates have been compiled from literature reviews and expert opinion, led by 16 expert working groups of The Royal College of Ophthalmologists. These estimates have been applied to the UK population by nation, region and health board/ICB. Read the full explanation of the data sources and modelling. The data hub models predicted trends over 15 years based on this baseline data.
The rates of disease used in the model do not change over time, with changes in overall prevalence being driven by changes in population demographics. Estimates are based on current prevalence rates (a constant value) and applied to future population estimates. The model does not capture any anticipated changes in prevalence rates.
As the birth rate is predicted to decrease, the model predicts there will be fewer children in the population, and so the overall prevalence of myopia will decrease. This also explains why paediatric strabismus and hyperopia rates are also decreasing in the model.
We will review the most recent and robust evidence on the changing rates of myopia in children and use this to update the next version of the model, which is due later in 2025. In the meantime, the user has the facility to input higher rates now if they consider that the rate in the model is too low for their population.
Between October 2023 and June 2024, 16 expert working groups were convened by The Royal College of Ophthalmologists across ophthalmic subspecialties. These expert groups identified prevalence and incidence data on over 250 eye conditions based on literature reviews and expert opinion. Over 40 eye diseases and eye conditions are currently included in the data hub, with more to follow in the next update.
The Hub has the added benefit of allowing the user change to change data inputs such as eye disease prevalence rates, headcounts and training completion rates – based on their local knowledge.
Data for the optometrist workforce is taken from the 2023 GOC register. Optometrists’ postcodes were used to assume where they were likely to work. The percentage of full-time and part-time optometrists was obtained from the GOC Registrant Workforce and Perceptions Survey 2023 and applied to the whole register population. Both the total number of optometrists and the FTE are modelled in the data hub.
Yes, the total optometrist’s data includes the modelling for all registered optometrists. Specific IP optometrists’ models can be reached by clicking on the ‘Workforce Options’ tab on the Optometrist page, and then choosing an Optometrists group.
The dashboard has been built using the workforce data available in 2023, and will be updated periodically as new data becomes available. The next update is due later in 2025. Workforce data has been compiled from national health services’ data sources, registrant data, and from the latest datasets provided by the expert Advisory Group members. Workforce data at health board and ICB level is an estimate, based on available regional or national datasets and local populations. Users should interpret any projections at these levels with caution. Read a full explanation of the data sources.
The number of specialist ophthalmic nurses in England is not expected to change significantly between 2025 and 2035 (0.6% increase). The 33% UK decrease quoted is driven by the decrease in specialist nurses expected in the rest of the UK, particularly in Wales and Northern Ireland.
Dispensing Opticians (DOs) are predicted to decrease overall in the next decade, but not in Northern Ireland, where they are expected to increase by 48.9%. The overall decrease is due to the predicted changes in England and Wales over the next ten years.
While ophthalmologists are expected to increase in the UK between now and 2035, the rate of increase will be much lower in Northern Ireland.
Similarly, the rate of increase in the numbers of orthoptists is expected to be lower in Scotland than the rest of the UK.
The hub models the predicted total number of ophthalmic nurses expected in the workforce over the next 10-15 years. It uses workforce data from NHS England and data from the National Ophthalmic Workforce Review in Scotland to determine the numbers of nurses working in eye care in England and Scotland. As there was not workforce data available for ophthalmic nurses in Wales and Northern Ireland, the research team assumed that the ratio of the number of nurses to number of consultants (doctors) was the same as in England and used this assumption to model the numbers of nurses in those nations.
The dashboard shows both the number of individuals (headcount) and full-time equivalents (FTE) – which takes into account how many nurses are likely to be working part-time hours. The modelling also predicts the numbers of people entering the profession and the numbers retiring from the profession each year, to calculate the overall change in the nursing workforce. Ultimately, the model predicts decreasing numbers in some UK nations because the available evidence suggests that the number of ophthalmic nurses expected to leave the profession is greater than the number of ophthalmic nurses that are joining the profession.
We don’t know if the decreasing numbers of eye care nurses predicted in the model is due to fewer nurses joining the profession overall or fewer nurses choosing to specialise in eye care. However, in September 2024 the RCN published an analysis that indicates some specialist nurse numbers are falling, and are expected to be half what they were twenty years ago. It is possible that this also applies to ophthalmic speciality nursing.
According to the GMC register, there was a 12% increase in the number of doctors on the specialist register, with a license to practice, between 2019-2023. Over the same period, the figure for ophthalmologists was lower at a 9.4% increase. There were 2,601 ophthalmologists in the UK at the end of 2023. When the modellers looked at the number of consultant ophthalmologists working in the UK according to NHS workforce data published by each UK nation, they found there were 1,742 full time equivalent consultant ophthalmologists in the UK. This equates to just under 2,000 individual consultant ophthalmologists.
The Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) has undertaken research to assess whether the number of ophthalmologists is sufficient to meet patient need. Its 2022 workforce census found that 76% of clinical leads in ophthalmology departments said they did not have enough consultants to meet current patient demand. In a separate 2024 survey of ophthalmology clinical leads, only 25% said their service generally meets the needs of patients in their area. The RCOphth has called for an increase in ophthalmology training places across the UK by 2031 to ensure the long term sustainability of services, based on an ageing population and therefore growing patient numbers.
Yes. Population data for 2023 by age was obtained from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) for nations, regions, ICBs and health boards. Population projections were available at the national level only. For all other areas (regions, ICBs and health boards), the growth rate for the nation was calculated and applied to their populations.
This data is currently not available for accurate modelling. We are aware that an increasing number of optometrists work within both primary and secondary care, and in other settings such as academia. It is not possible to identify where exactly each individual works from the current optometric workforce data sources. The model could be updated should this level of data become available in the future.
The hub models the number of registered optometrists in the UK, but commissioners will need to apply local data and knowledge to determine where they are working (primary or secondary care) and how many are providing NHS services within primary care.
PCSE could potentially provide data at ICS level in England on the number of optometrists providing GOS sight tests, but we haven’t been able to access it. This is something that we can explore further for a future update.
all searchable down to ICS and Health Board level. These models can be reached by clicking on the ‘Workforce options’ tab on the Optometrist page and then choosing an Optometrists group. Additional qualifications may be added in a future iteration of the model.
There is limited data availability at ICB or Health Board level for some professions. Where current workforce estimates are blank, no data was available. In addition, where very small numbers of orthoptists were reported in a region, these have been recorded as zero, so as not to identify any individuals.
Data was obtained from the British and Irish Orthoptic Society (BIOS) from a survey of orthoptic departments in the UK undertaken in May 2023. The survey had a c.70% response rate and so numbers were extrapolated to model the whole workforce. Due to the small number of orthoptists, data was only provided at the national and English region levels.
If users have workforce data at ICB or Health Board level, please contact neal.suchak@college-optometrists.org so the data can be included in the next update of the model.
The College of Optometrists will lead in updating the data, in collaboration with the Advisory Group. We are planning to update the Hub later this year in order to add more eye conditions to it. As part of this update, we will incorporate any feedback on improvements suggested by users of the first version and any updated workforce data. If users have accurate workforce data at health board or ICB level, we will be able to add that into the model. Please send this to neal.suchak@college-optometrists.org
This is not part of the UK Eye Care Data Hub project. The data hub models the expected changes in the eye care workforce over time, if recruitment, retention, education and training trends do not change. It doesn’t tell users how many of each type of health professional are needed to treat each eye condition.
Both the prevalence data and the workforce data are currently already available by nation, region, and ICS/Health Board level. This can be reached by selecting the required nation, region (for England) and then ICB or Health Board.
A recording of the webinar, which includes a demonstration by YHEC is available on the College website. A series of additional ‘How to’ tutorials will be developed shortly. Further support can be found by contacting neal.suchak@college-optometrists.org
